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The Future of BlackBerry

147K views 1K replies 73 participants last post by  peano 
#1 · (Edited by Moderator)
Some unfortunate news was revealed for those BlackBerry addicts who've waited patiently for a QNX-based smartphone from RIM. The company's co-CEO, Mike Lazaridis, reports that, due to a critical chipset that's not expected to be available in production quantity until mid-next year, we're unlikely to see a BlackBerry 10 device emerge until late in 2012.

The news keeps getting worse and worse. People are already doubting that BlackBerry 10 would help RIM even if a device was released tomorrow, and now that they won't be out for a year, I don't see how RIM can succeed. Too many failures and too little successes as of late.

Sad to see them fall like this.
 
#2 ·
Sadly, after reading yesterday's news, I have to think that RIM is done. When you think about where we have come in the last year in smartphones and tablets, it's inconceivable how RIM could fall for another year and then expect to come back.

RIM's quarterly profit dropped sharply and it expects holiday sales to be so poor that it forecasts its first quarter-to-quarter decline in six years during the crucial holiday sales season.


My guess is unit sales will decline in 2012 and margins continue to erode. RIM has such a large base in the Enterprise that I suspect it will be sometime before it will be out of business but the writing appears to be on the wall.
 
#4 ·
Hard to say what will happen to RIM.

If they can keep their market share in the 15-20% range then with some restructuring they should be able to do just fine.

If they drop below 15% then it will be much harder for them and they will need to re-brand as a niche device and structure the company appropriately, i.e. much smaller.
 
#7 ·
That is quite short sighted considering the trend. So RIM doesn't need to change a thing?

Interestingly enough, I have my iPod Touch connected to my employer's Wifi network and I find it a much better device than my BB Curve 9300. When I'm in the office, the BB is thrown in a drawer. Someone sent me a snapshot via email yesterday and I couldn't look at it on the BB. It was too small. On the iPod, at least I could easily zoom in and pan.
 
#6 ·
I'm not an IT guy, but I get the feeling IT departments probably don't like all the Android devices getting free run these days and Apple devices are.....too different. Maybe there still is a market for a business oriented device, but someone needs to come up with it soon and RIM better get their butts in gear.

Best thing I can say about Blackberries for people like my wife and my boss at work...thank goodness they just work. These are people that just want to be connected to the office when they're out. No frills. With my Android phone I have to run one app to only turn on bluetooth when I'm in my car, or to turn off wifi if I'm not home or at the office....these are to save battery. Most people can't be bothered will all this.
 
#8 ·
Getting a Palm Pilot feel about RIM. Hope I'm wrong. If they make it, it will be from the strong corporate support, where systems aren't changed every few months to have the latest bling.

Looking like they will need a Wii kind of hit. Still a great deal of goodwill and fondness in the name. Even people who are using other smartphones and have left RIM seem to be disappointed and nostalgic and aren't negative.
 
#9 · (Edited)
Pundits have been predicting the demise of RIM since 1999. And now that there's finally a stable and popular competing smartphone, they're predicting RIM's demise yet again.

When the iPhone was introduced, RIM sales increased. Apple made the "smartphone" cool.

All I can say is that RIM is very likely here stay, despite this "bump in the road".
 
#10 ·
RIM is done.

In relation to their market share, they haven't been able to hold the interest of developers. This is in contrast with Windows Phone 7 which has very little market share, but is punching well above its weight in developer mindshare.

Their operating system is decidedly last-generation and stinks of Java. Transitioning to a modern OS is apparently going to take RIM a long time - longer than they have.

Personally, I think that given RIMs current level of execution, the company may soon be worth more in parts than as a whole company.
 
#11 ·
i think RIM will survive but their main market will be enterprise mobile email solutions. Their decision to allow Android and iPhone/Pads to connect to their email systems will please many enterprise clients and help fend off the advances if Google and apple in that arena.
 
#15 ·
Let's not get too carried away with the demise of RIMM. It is profitable company with little or no debt. Their P/E ratio is about 3 compared to peer ratio P/E ratio of nearly 45. The stock is being hit due to expectations vs reality in terms of market share, mostly in U.S. I am no analyst or a broker, but be very carful shorting this stock at this time. This is not going to zero.

Disclosure: I have no position in this stock, but I may consider going long on it, but not short. Shorts are about a year too late.
 
#20 ·
Perhaps that they would have the native email capabilities on the PB by Summer 2011? Or was the initial promise even sooner than that?

Our IT department was pushing us to use Playbooks so I bought three for my cost centre. Only one is still being used. With QNX (aka BBX aka BB10 aka WTF they are calling it next week) not available until late 2012 there is not much future at RIM. They should have sold the company to MSFT or HTC or someone for $50/share six months ago.
 
#18 ·
Back to my 9900...

Yep - been sporting a Samsung Infuse for the last few weeks.

Want apps - Android / IOS - lots of apps.

How many do I use in a normal day...couple (Weather, Stocks, Twitter)

Battery life on Andriod is BAD - If you never use the phone - never turn on the screen - you MIGHT get a full day out of it....use it normally - charging again by 3 PM.

IOS (Iphone 4S) - Battey is better then Andriod (except those effected by the IOS 5 Battery issue) - Mine use to last the full day.

Again lots of apps....

I'm back on Blackberry because:

Battery life - full day with usage.
Keyboard - To many typo's on Virtual.
Corporate Mail - For Android - you need to purchase third party apps ($20 - Touchdown) to get any type of BB experience. Even then limited in features compared to BB)
IOS Corparate email - no third party apps that I am aware of...same limited function corporate use - maybe a bit better then Android.


These of course are just my opinions....based on MY usage.

I do own Rim, Apple and Motorola (now Google) stock.

Cheers
 
#19 ·
I pretty much agree with Rob's ^ points.

For battery, keyboard, and corporate mail/calendar blackberry is great. But I'd almost call it a "corporate email device" vs. a "smart phone".

Let's remember that's how BB started: remember we had them for a number of years before the phone feature was incorporated. And back then they really were portable "corporate email devices". And I think that's what they still are with the bonus of a built-in phone.

So I think it will come down to whether people want a corporate email device or a smartphone. And in my experience, I'm seeing businesses in downtown calgary switch one after the other to iPhones for their staff.
 
#25 ·
I guess - but really what's the definition of a "Smart Phone" ??

What can Android and IOS do any different then Blackberry?

The term "Smart Phone" I think will just be replaced with "Phone" since that's whats really selling these days.

Do we still refer to TV's as Flat Panel TV's? Or do we now just say - HD TV or just TV....

Cheers
 
#27 ·
RIM shares are down yet again this AM, so much for a Christmas rally. I don't have any shares of this company, and have bad memories of being "burned" by Nortel, all those years ago.

Who knows, it might actually be a good time to buy RIM, since the shares have really been beaten down in the last year, but I am not up to taking that chance.
 
#32 · (Edited)
#33 ·
Koodo has a good deal on Blackberry phones ending tomorrow $50 off price + $50 visa gift card and 3 months of Blackberry lite data (100 meg) totaling $145 in savings. I was thinking of getting a Curve 9360 to go with my Playbook (Excellent combination for my needs) but maybe I should hold off for a bigger sale to come?
 
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